Multi-Segment Decline Curve Analysis untuk Peramalan Produksi Gas Serpih Marcellus Menggunakan tNavigator
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.69836/ncrcs-sinesia.v2i1.237Keywords:
Shale Gas, Production Forecasting, Decline Curve Analysis, Marcellus Formation, tNavigatorAbstract
Peramalan produksi yang akurat pada reservoir gas tidak konvensional sangat penting untuk ketahanan energi, namun tetap menjadi tantangan karena aliran transien yang berkepanjangan dan perubahan operasional. Penelitian ini mengatasi kesenjangan penelitian dengan mengkuantifikasi dampak perubahan konfigurasi sumur terhadap parameter kurva penurunan pada sumur gas serpih Marcellus yang telah direkah hidraulik. Workflow analisis kurva penurunan (DCA) delapan segmen diimplementasikan dalam modul Reservoir Performance tNavigator. Segmen pertama hingga kedelapan dihubungkan menggunakan opsi smooth linking perangkat lunak. Segmen pertama dimodelkan dengan berbagai model (Duong, Stretched Exponential, Power Law Exponential) dan untuk segmen kedua hingga kedelapan dimodelkan menggunakan Model Hiperbolik Arps. Skenario dengan model Duong mencapai R² 0,945, model Stretched Exponential mencapai R² 0,948, dan model Power Law Exponential mencapai R² 0,947. Hal ini menyoroti kemampuan model Stretched Exponential yang dirancang untuk reservoir tidak konvensional yang didominasi rekahan. Model Duong meningkatkan akurasi peramalan sebesar 6,5 MMSCF dibandingkan dua skenario lainnya. Model terkalibrasi memperkirakan Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) sebesar 3,3 BSCF, dengan cadangan tersisa yang dapat dipulihkan sebesar 0,79 BSCF. Workflow tervalidasi ini menunjukkan bahwa menggabungkan transisi operasional dan menggunakan model DCA yang sesuai dengan reservoir secara signifikan meningkatkan estimasi cadangan.
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